New Non-Partisan Poll Shows Whitesides Leading Garcia In CA-27

California Elections and Policy Poll shows independent voters breaking for Whitesides

AGUA DULCE, CA – Yesterday, USC, Cal Poly Pomona, and CSU Long Beach released a California Elections and Policy Poll showing George Whitesides leading incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia 44.4% to 43.1% in the race for California’s 27th Congressional District. Whitesides’ margin increases to 48.2% – 46.1% when undecided voters are pushed to choose.

Undecided voters break to Whitesides by over 7 percentage points in the poll when asked who they lean toward, while “excited” voters favor Whitesides by nearly 12 points.

“It’s no surprise that undecided voters are pulling away from Rep. Mike Garcia, given his support for a national abortion ban and cutting Social Security and Medicare,” said George Whitesides.

This poll comes on the heels of the Los Angeles Times and New York Times calling Garcia’s opening ad “misleading” as he works to “blunt a liability” over his poor voting record, which includes cosponsoring the national abortion ban with no exceptions, voting against reducing health care and prescription drug costs, proposing a budget to cut Social Security and Medicare, and being caught in a stock scandal profiting off alleged insider trading.

Read excerpts below:

CEPP: The California Elections and Policy Polls (CEPP) of California’s Competitive U.S. House Districts, eight polls conducted September 14-21, 2024

California Elections & Policy Poll | September 24, 2024

In CA-27 in northern Los Angeles County, Democrat George Whitesides is ahead of Republican incumbent Mike Garcia, though the margin of error suggests the race is statistically tied. Unlike some other districts polled, undecided voters in CA-27 are breaking toward the Democratic challenger instead of toward the Republican incumbent. Whitesides leads Garcia 44.4% to 43.1% with 10.4% saying they don’t know who they will vote for (and 2.1% plan to not cast a ballot in this election). When pushed, the 10.4% of undecideds break 36.7% to 29.2% to Whitesides with the remaining 24.0% still undecided. Including both supporters and undecided leaners, Whitesides is ahead 48.2% to Garcia’s 46.1%.
Yet undecided voters – if they break toward one candidate or party in each district – will likely determine the outcome in these six “purple” districts. When asked “Even though you said you didn’t know who you plan to vote for in the US House election, if you were forced to choose, who would you vote for?” undecided voters in three districts (CA-13, CA-22, and CA-41) narrowly favored the Republican candidate. Undecided voters in three other districts (CA-27, CA-45, and CA-47) narrowly favored the Democratic candidate.

Voters excited to take part in the 2024 election favor House Democratic candidates by large margins in the six purple districts polled. The cross-tabs show that the enthusiasm gap favors Democratic House candidates, and this enthusiasm gap is particularly pronounced in five of the six competitive districts featuring a Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate. The table below shows that voters who are very excited to vote in 2024 favor the Democratic House candidate by double digits in CA-13 (+14.9 Democrat Adam Gray); in CA-27 (+11.7 Democrat George Whitesides); in CA-41 (+12.6 Democrat Will Rollins) in CA-45 (+13.2 Democrat Derek Tran); and in CA-47 (+13.1 Democrat David Min). The only districts where enthusiasm is relatively similar is CA-22, where voters who are very excited to vote in 2024 favor Democrat Rudy Salas over Republican David Valadao by only 1.6 percentage points.

Politico: Exclusive battleground House race polling

Dustin Gardiner, Lara Korte | September 24, 2024

If the road to a majority in the U.S House of Representatives runs through California, a new poll suggests Democrats are narrowly on track to get there.
The poll, conducted by researchers at the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona, found Democratic candidates to be slightly ahead of Republicans in four of the state’s six most closely-watched swing districts.
“If the Democrats control the House in 2024, it’s probably because four or five of these districts flip,” said Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead pollster. “It truly is so close that everything on the margins can make a difference.”
The poll offers a rare glimpse into battleground races across California, which aren’t often polled. And it did find one major advantage for Democrats: The party’s voters tend to be much more excited than their Republican counterparts about the House candidates on the ballot.
Democrat George Whitesides is leading Republican incumbent Mike Garcia by slightly more than one percentage point, 44 to 43 percent.